Why do fools so often rise to the top? Watching the war in the Middle East, one question keeps coming back to me. How do people like Donald Trump and the band of simplistic voices around him manage to reach the very top of power?

At first glance it feels baffling.

But then you realise this is not some strange political anomaly. We see versions of the same phenomenon in our own work organisations every day.

Think about the last time you saw someone clearly less capable than others getting promoted ahead of them. The person who speaks with absolute certainty but understands little. The one who reduces complicated problems into catchy slogans. The one who projetcs confidence rather than competence.

Meanwhile the thoughtful, analytical people, the ones who understand nuance and complexity often remain where they are.

When this happens, we usually explain it away with a familiar line. ‘life isn’t fair’. Or perhaps more cynically ‘the bad guys always win’. But in my view, there is a deeper dynamic at work.

Most systems, whether political, corporate, or even social, do not reward intelligence and competence. They reward clarity, confidence, and emotional resonance.

Deep thinkers tend to say ‘It depends’ because they understand things are more in grey than absolute black & white. Whereas the simplifiers say ‘I have the answer’ without having given it much thought. One reflects reality and the other satisfies the audience.

Psychologists describe part of this dynamic through the Dunning–Kruger Effect, which holds that people with limited understanding often overestimate their ability due to a lack of self-awareness. On the other hand, those who truly understand a subject tend to recognise its complexity and speak more cautiously.

In environments full of uncertainty, people are naturally drawn toward the person who sounds certain, even when that certainty is built on very little substance.

Once you start looking at the world through this lens, many things begin to make sense, from your office to national and global politics.

Which explains why we often end up with leaders who are far less capable than we imagine them to be.